Appendix C – Risk Assessment

Risk	Mitigation
Any delays in the programme will risk the need for significant additional maintenance and capital expenditure due to the current properties having only been made compliant with fire safety regulations for up to 5 years.  New Part B of Building Regulations due to be adopted in March 2025 will need to be considered if undertaking further development of the existing buildings. The alternative would be unplanned closure of settings, which is known to cause significant disruption to residents and the workforce, and is likely to have significant redundancy implications.	Governance milestones set for the project with escalation processes in place. Thorough evaluations of the options facilitate timely decisions.
Potential for introduction of new or changes in statutory authority/regulation over the course of the programme leading to increased costs.	Allowance of robust contingencies within the capital costs.  Consultant/Strategic Property keep abreast of developments in legislation.
Cost inflation pre-tender and post tender period if programme delayed or if prolonged phased implementation.	Allowances made within the capital costs for inflation throughout the duration of the programme. Decisions milestones during timeframe, follow escalation process if needed to get a decision, thorough evaluations of the options of refurb or rebuild to help make a timely decision Mitigate delays during phases using Boards and escalation process.
Increased costs owing to unknown site abnormals.	Align Property Services hold some intelligence on proposed sites and have used this to inform capital costs on a site-by-site basis.  Allowance of robust contingencies within the capital costs.  Subject to approval of the strategic business case, site feasibility studies will be undertaken to be fully understand site abnormals and associated costs prior to progressing developments.
Proposals would be subject to planning permission to build new care settings on identified sites. Inability to secure planning permission on identified/preferred site(s) would delay the programme.	Planning colleagues were involved in site evaluation workshops to shortlist potential sites. Public consultation events would be undertaken for each development.  More than one shortlisted site identified for each locality, and ongoing site appraisal throughout the programme to identify alternative site options.
Likely competition for identified sites from other directorates across the Council who may be further ahead in their projects and planning which could result in shortlisted sites being secured for other purposes. If shortlisted NYC sites become unavailable, potential requirement to consider purchase/acquisition of non-NYC owned sites at cost.	Work closely with Planning/Property to keep up-to-date with the sites, any competition as well as any new/alternative suitable sites that become available. Strategic Property Board being set up to prioritise allocation. More than one shortlisted site identified for each locality, and ongoing site appraisal throughout the programme to identify alternative site options.
Inability to recruit and retain an appropriately skilled workforce to deliver new models of specialist care, resulting in services being unable to deliver at full capacity and/or reliance on less specialist, but higher cost, agency staff.	A workforce development plan to deliver CPS transformation plans is already in place, and work commenced on delivering against this in collaboration with HR and Training & Learning.  Vacancies and turnover in CPS are currently at their lowest in a number of years following investment in workforce development and a focus on reward and recognition of our care workforce.  The Council will seek to retain and develop this workforce.  A robust and compelling recruitment campaign will be developed as part of the implementation of the new provision.
Changes in demand and/or service requirements owing to changes in Council or national priorities or policies.	Work closely with the Board and Council Leaders to stay abreast of demand and priorities. Flexibility of the design and service model will support ability to respond to any changes in service requirements.  Strong evidence base to support increasing demand.
Over-estimation of projected demand for specialist residential dementia care and intermediate care resulting in under-occupied properties and loss of income.	Phased programme of development will enable ongoing monitoring of demand and care market capacity to ensure the proposals remain in line with projected demand.  Robust evidence base for sustained increased demand for residential care. Flexibility of the design and service model will support ability to respond to alternative models of residential care.  Savings scenarios undertaken demonstrate return on investment with reduced occupancy.
Under-estimation of projected demand resulting in ongoing requirement to purchase high levels of specialist residential dementia care and intermediate care in the independent sector at high cost to the HAS budgets.	Phased programme of development will enable ongoing monitoring of demand and care market capacity to ensure the proposals remain in line with projected demand.  Flexibility of the design and service model will support ability to respond to any changes in service requirements for residential care.  Broader work being undertaken by HAS Service Development to upskill and build capacity in the wider care market to support people with specialist care needs.
Inappropriate use of the new Care & Support Hubs to support people who do not have specialist care needs will mean that the savings outlined in this proposal and business case cannot be realised.	Robust referral and assessment pathways will be established and monitored to ensure that the services are used appropriately.  Robust performance monitoring arrangements will be established with the appropriate governance and reporting in place to ensure delivery against the intended service model, outcomes and key performance indicators.
Escalating costs of service delivery will mean that the savings outlined in this proposal and business case cannot be realised.	Detailed financial modelling has been undertaken to develop the unit cost model for the new provision, taking account of published independent data.  Robust budget management arrangements will be established with the appropriate governance and reporting in place to ensure delivery against the identified budget.
De-stabilisation of the independent sector residential care market through reduced demand for specialist care provision may cause some providers to withdraw from the market.	Robust evidence base for sustained increased demand for residential care. Broader work being undertaken by HAS Service Development to upskill and build capacity in the wider care market to support people with specialist care needs.
Changes to services for current residents has the potential to have a negative impact on health and wellbeing.	Procedure for the Planned Closure of a Council Residential Home (Adults) will be followed, with a clear and detailed Project Plan and Communication Strategy in place, coordinated by a multi-disciplinary Steering Group. Restrictions would be placed on new admissions to EPHs as part of the implementation.  Sensitive consultation with people and their families prior to closure, working closely with Locality Care and Support Teams.  Assessment of residential care provision in indicates sufficient residential care capacity to meet equivalent levels of care required. Close joined-up working with Brokerage, Service Development and Locality Care and Support Teams to assess people and ensure suitable alternative placements and support are identified, promoting choice and taking account of friendships alongside personal and social needs. Counselling and/or advocacy will be made available to people demonstrating signs and symptoms of stress related to the closure.